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Eurozone monetary aggregates reflect solid housing market - ING

Peter Vanden Houte, the chief economist at ING, notes that the Eurozone's money growth decelerated to 8.3% y/y in June, but the underlying loan figures reflect a solid housing market and an upturn in business investment.

"Year-on-year money growth (M3) fell to 8.3% in June, down from 8.5% in May."

"The annual growth rate of the most liquid aggregate M1 slightly accelerated to 11.7% in June from 11.6% in May. In the past, this would have been a harbinger for a significant increase in future inflation, but not today, as the information contained in the money growth figures has become difficult to interpret since central banks started to use unconventional monetary policy measures."

"Regarding the counterparts, the annual growth rate of credit to the government decreased to 13.0% in June from 15.4% in May."

"Adjusted loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales, securitisation and notional cash pooling) rose 3.0% year-on-year in June from 2.7% in May, with the adjusted loan growth rate to households at 4.0% and to non-financial corporations at 1.9%."

"At the same time, there is a further shift towards longer-term loans to firms."

"Loans up to one year to non-financial corporations actually fell 11.9% year-on-year, while loans with maturities over five years grew 7.2% year-on-year, accelerating from the 6.1% growth rate seen in May. On the one hand, this is due to base effects."

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