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UK’s economy expected to show 5.3 percent growth in Q2 - NIESR

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported on Friday that it expects the UK’s economy to expand 1.5 percent m-o-m in May and 0.9 percent m-o-m in June, helped by the continuing reopening of the UK’s economy. In the second quarter of 2021, GDP is now seen to show an expansion of around 5.3 percent, which would represent the fastest quarterly growth rate since the summer of last year and the initial recovery phase after the Covid-19 shock, NIESR added.

NIESR also noted that the ONS statistics published this morning revealed the UK economy rose 2.3 percent m-o-m in April, almost in line with what the institute had forecast last month.

“Like March, April was a month of rapid growth in services output, as anticipated, driven by the re-opening of non-essential retail, outdoor hospitality and near-full attendance in schools,” noted Rory Macqueen, NIESR’s Principal Economist. “May will follow a similar pattern, as further restrictions are lifted, as will June if the final step of the roadmap goes to plan. But falls in construction and production, which were less affected by the 2021 lockdown, remind us that our focus should now be on the prospects for the economy in the second half of the year, after temporary re-opening effects have ceased to provide strong monthly increases."

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