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EUR/USD: The risks are skewed to a break to the upside – MUFG

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank discuss EUR/USD prospects.

“The ECB kept the guidance of PEPP purchases being at a ‘significantly higher pace” than in the early months of the year rather than altering the guidance to simply purchases being “maintained around the current pace’, which we would view as giving the ECB less wiggle room to slow purchases later in Q3.”

“While the PEPP guidance was in line with market expectations, the changes that did take place certainly were on the optimistic side. The ECB dropped its downside risk assessment over the near-term to simply conclude risks were balanced while the upgrades to GDP and inflation forecasts were a little stronger than expected.”

“ The 10yr UST bond yield has now dropped 19.3bps on a closing basis over the last five trading days to yesterday – the largest decline since 2nd April last year. The US-EU 10yr yield spread has fallen notably (12bps) in the same period, to below 170bps for the first time since late February. That leaves the risks skewed to a break to the upside in EUR/USD.”

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Currencies. Daily history for Friday, June 11, 2021
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