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FXStreet notes that local and regional elections in the UK on Thursday, May 6 have rekindled interest in the thorny question of Scottish independence. The uncertainty surrounding a vote would be bad for the pound, as Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, notes.
“If pro-independence parties gain a strong majority in the new Scottish Parliament, First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon will likely demand a second independence referendum, once the Covid-19 pandemic is behind us.”
“The possibility of a second Scottish referendum in Scotland reinforces our belief that EUR/GBP won’t go back to its pre-Brexit-referendum levels for many years.”
“Our end-year forecast for EUR/GBP remains at 0.87, which is where it is trading today."