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BoE's chief economist Haldane: We might see higher and more sustained rise in UK inflation than expected

  • High degree of two-sided uncertainty on inflation is understandable
  • There is tangible risk inflation proves more difficult to tame
  • If economies bounce-back as vaccination programme is rolled-out, policy stimulus could over-stimulate the economy and, with it, inflation
  • Reasonable chance disinflationary trends could persist and indeed be amplified by the COVID crisis, posing downside inflation risks
  • Costs to the economy and BOE getting these judgments wrong could be significant
  • Few, if any, historical precedents to help judge the response of the economy to this scale of shock and degree of policy stimulus


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