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US dollar’s safe-haven currency function is now markedly weakened – Natixis

FXStreet reports that analysts at Natixis seek to determine whether the USD still plays this safe-haven currency role when risk aversion is high nowadays, and what factors could have changed this role. 

“When risk aversion has become high, the dollar has traditionally played a safe-haven currency role, appreciating against the euro. A rise in risk aversion (1998, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, 2018-19) has led to an appreciation of the dollar against the euro. The dollar’s safe-haven role stems from the fact that when risk aversion is high (2008, 2012, 2014, 2018-19): Capital flows to the US from OECD countries, particularly from the Eurozone; but capital also flows to the US (the dollar) from emerging countries due to capital outflows.”

“The COVID-19 crisis has not given rise to a lasting appreciation of the dollar against the euro. This can be explained by: An economic reason, concern about the rising US external debt; a political reason, the end of dollar purchases by many countries (China, Russia, OPEC).”

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