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US Dollar Index: Range-bound with conflicting currents – MUFG

FXStreet reports that according to economists at MUFG Bank, there are now so many macro factors for market participants to focus on it is no wonder that FX markets remain mostly within recent ranges

“We see little change in the two biggest negatives for market sentiment at the moment. The first is the significant re-escalation of COVID-19 in Europe and some signs of re-escalation in the US as well .The second is the failure in the US to reach a deal on a fiscal stimulus package ahead of the election”

“The markets for now remain half-hearted in its conviction on reducing risk. This makes sense for now given the large-scale fiscal stimulus likely in 2021. What that means for inflation and the US deficit outlook point to the strong need for a weaker US dollar in order for these large-scale deficits to be financed going forward.”

“There are two natural market adjustment mechanisms for higher levels of capital requirements in the US – higher rates or a weaker US dollar. We are betting on the Fed following through with its commitment to cap rates, leaving the US dollar as the only viable adjustment mechanism for financing record deficits going forward.”

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